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Kano Pillars vs Go Round — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
2 – 0
Go Round
Go Round
5/12/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 19Sani Abacha Stadium (Kano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kano Pillars62%
×Draw25%
Go Round13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.54
Go Round
0.54

Kano Pillars creates 185% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Go Round
0.64

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Go Round
1.55

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Go Round →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
87%
Kano Pillars or Go Round
75%
Draw or Go Round
38%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
33%
Go Round wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
79%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
45%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
20%
Go Round 1+ goals
42%
Go Round 2+ goals
10%
Go Round 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
83%
Go Round (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Go Round attack 0.64 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
62%
level
25%
Go Round scores more
13%

Kano Pillars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kano Pillars 2–0 Go Round

Kano Pillars beat Go Round 2-0 in NPFL on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium (Kano).