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Go Round vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Go Round
Go Round
FT
2 – 1
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
2/6/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 7Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Go Round50%
×Draw31%
Kano Pillars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Go Round
1.18
Kano Pillars
0.59

Go Round creates 100% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 121 away

creates per match

Go Round
0.82
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Go Round
0.55
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Go Round+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Go Round ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Go Round or draw
81%
Go Round or Kano Pillars
69%
Draw or Kano Pillars
50%

Winning margin

Go Round wins by 2+
22%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Go Round 1+ goals
69%
Go Round 2+ goals
33%
Go Round 3+ goals
12%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
45%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
12%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Go Round (draw refunded)
73%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Go Round at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Go Round attack 0.82 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Go Round defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Go Round scores more
50%
level
31%
Kano Pillars scores more
19%

Go Round at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Go Round will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Go Round vs Kano Pillars

Go Round beat Kano Pillars 2-1 in NPFL on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at Krisdera Hotel Stadium (Omoku).