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Kano Pillars vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
5/16/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 21Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kano Pillars76%
×Draw18%
Adamawa United6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kano Pillars
1.95
Adamawa United
0.34

Kano Pillars creates 474% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kano Pillars
1.54
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Kano Pillars
0.44
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw
94%
Kano Pillars or Adamawa United
82%
Draw or Adamawa United
24%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+
49%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals
86%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
58%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
31%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
29%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
5%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
93%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.95

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kano Pillars scores more
76%
level
18%
Adamawa United scores more
6%

Kano Pillars at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kano Pillars vs Adamawa United

Kano Pillars beat Adamawa United 1-0 in NPFL on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.