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Adamawa United vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
CANC
15:00
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
5/31/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 38Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United47%
×Draw30%
Kano Pillars23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.24
Kano Pillars
0.78

Adamawa United creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 121 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
77%
Adamawa United or Kano Pillars
70%
Draw or Kano Pillars
53%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
21%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
71%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
35%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
13%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
54%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
18%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
67%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Adamawa United scores more
47%
level
30%
Kano Pillars scores more
23%

Adamawa United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adamawa United face Kano Pillars (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Adamawa United hosting Kano Pillars. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Adamawa United host Kano Pillars at Pantami Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.