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Kamuzu Barracks vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
Preview
12:30
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
2/7/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29
Big match
48%
Kamuzu Barracks
model favours
48%29%23%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks48%
×Draw29%
Moyale Barracks23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.29
Moyale Barracks
0.81

Kamuzu Barracks creates 59% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
77%
Kamuzu Barracks or Moyale Barracks
71%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
52%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
22%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
72%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
37%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
14%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
56%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
19%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
67%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
48%
level
29%
Moyale Barracks scores more
23%

Kamuzu Barracks at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Barracks
LLLLL
Barracks
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kamuzu Barracks face Moyale Barracks (Super League)

Super League returns with Kamuzu Barracks hosting Moyale Barracks. Match starts February 7, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.