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Kamuzu Barracks vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
10/29/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Aubrey Dimba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks48%
×Draw28%
Ekwendeni Hammers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.32
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.84

Kamuzu Barracks creates 57% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 74 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.91

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
76%
Kamuzu Barracks or Ekwendeni Hammers
72%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
52%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
22%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
73%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
38%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
15%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
57%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
21%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
67%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.91 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
48%
level
28%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
24%

Kamuzu Barracks at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kamuzu Barracks 1–0 Ekwendeni Hammers

Kamuzu Barracks beat Ekwendeni Hammers 1-0 in Super League on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Aubrey Dimba Stadium in Kapiri.