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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
5/12/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers39%
×Draw30%
Kamuzu Barracks30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Kamuzu Barracks
0.94

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
70%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Kamuzu Barracks
70%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
61%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
16%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
67%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
30%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
10%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
61%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
24%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
56%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
39%
level
30%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
30%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekwendeni Hammers 1–0 Kamuzu Barracks

Ekwendeni Hammers beat Kamuzu Barracks 1-0 in Super League on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.