Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kamen Ivanbegovina vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
FT
3 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
3/9/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina67%
×Draw18%
HNK Hajduk Split II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.40
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.04

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 131% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
85%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or HNK Hajduk Split II
82%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
33%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
45%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
91%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
69%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
42%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
65%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
28%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
82%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.40

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
67%
level
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
15%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Kamen Ivanbegovina 3–1 HNK Hajduk Split II

Kamen Ivanbegovina beat HNK Hajduk Split II 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kamen in Ivanbegovina.