Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HNK Hajduk Split II vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
2 – 2
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
9/9/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II59%
×Draw20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
2.16
Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.20

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
79%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Kamen Ivanbegovina
80%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
41%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
36%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
88%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
63%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
36%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
70%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
34%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
74%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
59%
level
20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
21%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split II vs Kamen Ivanbegovina

HNK Hajduk Split II and Kamen Ivanbegovina drew 2-2 in Third NL - Jug on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.