KAMAZ 2–1 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

E. Voronin 75'

R. Yanushkovskiy 61'

A. Mendel 42'

8/29/2021

First League · Round 8Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

KAMAZ42%

×Draw28%

Fakel Voronezh31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

KAMAZ

1.31

Fakel Voronezh

1.08

KAMAZ creates 21% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 89 away

1.31

creates per match

1.20

0.97

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

KAMAZ

1.31

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.97

Fakel Voronezh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

69%

KAMAZ or Fakel Voronezh

72%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

58%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

19%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

73%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

38%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

14%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

66%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

29%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

58%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.31 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + KAMAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KAMAZ scores more

42%

level

28%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

31%

KAMAZ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

27'

42'

61'

69'

71'

74'

75'

78'

A. Razborov← K. Appaev

78'

A. Kulishev← D. Shepilov

80'

R. Ayukin← M. Beveev

80'

R. Osmanov← R. Yanushkovskiy

84'

Aleksandr Gagloev

86'

Sergey Bryzgalov

87'

V. Ignatenko← A. Gagloev

87'

Y. Kirillov← E. Voronin

90'

Redvan Osmanov

90+4'

P. Evseev← V. Svezhov

KAMAZ5-4-1

Fakel3-4-1-2

9

Maksimov

14

▼

Appaev

6

▼

Shepilov

18

⚽

7

28

2

25

4

92

57

77

11

▼

Gagloev

90

Teslenko

22

▼

Beveev

2

Morozov

3

Kulikov

17

⚽

▼

Yanushkov

23

Abazov

27

Kalugin

6

▼

Svezhov

37

⚽

▼

Voronin

Manager: V. Klontsak

80'▲R. Ayukin←▼M. Beveev

80'▲R. Osmanov←▼R. Yanushkovskiy

87'▲V. Ignatenko←▼A. Gagloev

87'▲Y. Kirillov←▼E. Voronin

90+4'▲P. Evseev←▼V. Svezhov

KAMAZ substitutes

7Ayukin8Osmanov15Ignatenko42Kirillov5Evseev1Mamin66Zubairov

Manager: O. Vasilenko

78'▲A. Razborov←▼K. Appaev

78'▲A. Kulishev←▼D. Shepilov

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

22Razborov32Kulishev1Sautin8Shavaev15Suslov34Dmitriev36Gruznov50Fayzullin56Sedov79Ermakov80Tsarukyan

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Fakel Voronezh

KAMAZ beat Fakel Voronezh 2-1 in First League on August 29, 2021.

Goals: A. Mendel (42'), R. Yanushkovskiy (61'), E. Voronin (75').

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.

KAMAZ vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KAMAZ vs Fakel Voronezh