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Fakel Voronezh vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
5/11/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Fakel Voronezh47%
×Draw31%
KAMAZ22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.17
KAMAZ
0.69

Fakel Voronezh creates 70% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 88 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
78%
Fakel Voronezh or KAMAZ
69%
Draw or KAMAZ
53%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
21%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
69%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
33%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
11%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
50%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
15%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
69%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
47%
level
31%
KAMAZ scores more
22%

Fakel Voronezh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 1–0 KAMAZ

Fakel Voronezh beat KAMAZ 1-0 in First League on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.