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Kamatamare Sanuki vs FC Gifu — League #100 2026

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Gifu
FC Gifu
9/8/2024League #100League #100 · Round 27Pikara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki39%
×Draw26%
FC Gifu35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.38
FC Gifu
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.13
FC Gifu
1.25

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.31
FC Gifu
1.63

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

FC Gifu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
65%
Kamatamare Sanuki or FC Gifu
74%
Draw or FC Gifu
61%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
18%
FC Gifu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
75%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
40%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
16%
FC Gifu 1+ goals
72%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
37%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
53%
FC Gifu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 1.13 + FC Gifu defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Gifu attack 1.25 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
39%
level
26%
FC Gifu scores more
35%

Kamatamare Sanuki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kamatamare Sanuki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kamatamare Sanuki vs FC Gifu

Kamatamare Sanuki beat FC Gifu 4-0 in League #100 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Pikara Stadium in Marugame.