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FC Gifu vs Kamatamare Sanuki — League #100 2026

FC Gifu
FC Gifu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
11/12/2023League #100League #100 · Round 35Nagaragawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Gifu41%
×Draw26%
Kamatamare Sanuki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gifu
1.45
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.27

FC Gifu creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 35 away

creates per match

FC Gifu
1.44
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.20

allows per match

FC Gifu
1.33
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.46

finishing

FC Gifu+0.00on par
Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gifu ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Gifu or draw
67%
FC Gifu or Kamatamare Sanuki
74%
Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki
59%

Winning margin

FC Gifu wins by 2+
20%
Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Gifu 1+ goals
77%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
42%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
18%
Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
72%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
36%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Gifu (draw refunded)
56%
Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gifu at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gifu attack 1.44 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 1.20 + FC Gifu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Gifu scores more
41%
level
26%
Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
33%

FC Gifu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Gifu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #100: FC Gifu 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki

FC Gifu beat Kamatamare Sanuki 1-0 in League #100 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Nagaragawa Stadium in Gifu.