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Kaluga vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
7/19/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Orbita stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kaluga54%
×Draw24%
Irtysh Omsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.76
Irtysh Omsk
1.06

Kaluga creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Irtysh Omsk
1.13

allows per match

Kaluga
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.38

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
77%
Kaluga or Irtysh Omsk
76%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
46%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
30%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
83%
Kaluga 2+ goals
52%
Kaluga 3+ goals
26%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
65%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
29%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
70%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kaluga scores more
54%
level
24%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
23%

Kaluga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Kaluga 1–2 Irtysh Omsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Kaluga 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Orbita stadium in Kaluga.