Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Kaluga: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 0

Kaluga

7/26/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Irtysh Omsk58%

×Draw25%

Kaluga18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchKaluga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.78

Irtysh Omsk

1.63

Kaluga

0.78

Irtysh Omsk creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.83

creates per match

0.57

1.00

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.83

Kaluga

0.57

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.00

Kaluga

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Kaluga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

82%

Irtysh Omsk or Kaluga

75%

Draw or Kaluga

42%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

31%

Kaluga wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

80%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

48%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

22%

Kaluga 1+ goals

54%

Kaluga 2+ goals

18%

Kaluga 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

76%

Kaluga (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.83 + Kaluga defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kaluga attack 0.57 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

58%

level

25%

Kaluga scores more

18%

Irtysh Omsk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff