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Kaluga vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
9/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kaluga43%
×Draw26%
FK Sokol Saratov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.44
FK Sokol Saratov
1.17

Kaluga creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
69%
Kaluga or FK Sokol Saratov
74%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
57%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
21%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
76%
Kaluga 2+ goals
42%
Kaluga 3+ goals
18%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
69%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
33%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
58%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kaluga scores more
43%
level
26%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
31%

Kaluga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Kaluga 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik in Kaluga.