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FK Sokol Saratov vs Kaluga — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kaluga
Kaluga
9/26/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov48%
×Draw27%
Kaluga25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.43
Kaluga
0.95

FK Sokol Saratov creates 51% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 55 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.75
Kaluga
1.13

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.77
Kaluga
1.11

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
75%
FK Sokol Saratov or Kaluga
73%
Draw or Kaluga
52%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
24%
Kaluga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
76%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
42%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
17%
Kaluga 1+ goals
61%
Kaluga 2+ goals
25%
Kaluga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
66%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Kaluga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kaluga attack 1.13 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
48%
level
27%
Kaluga scores more
25%

FK Sokol Saratov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: FK Sokol Saratov 3–1 Kaluga

FK Sokol Saratov beat Kaluga 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.