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Kaluga vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
10/20/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kaluga48%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Vladivostok28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.65
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.20

Kaluga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
72%
Kaluga or Dinamo Vladivostok
76%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
52%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
81%
Kaluga 2+ goals
49%
Kaluga 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kaluga scores more
48%
level
24%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
28%

Kaluga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Dinamo Vladivostok

Kaluga beat Dinamo Vladivostok 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik in Kaluga.