Dinamo Vladivostok 1–1 Kaluga: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kaluga

8/13/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok46%

×Draw27%

Kaluga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchKaluga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.98

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.36

Kaluga

0.98

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 39% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

1.61

creates per match

1.13

0.84

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.61

Kaluga

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.84

Kaluga

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Kaluga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

73%

Dinamo Vladivostok or Kaluga

73%

Draw or Kaluga

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

21%

Kaluga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

16%

Kaluga 1+ goals

62%

Kaluga 2+ goals

26%

Kaluga 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

63%

Kaluga (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Kaluga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kaluga attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

46%

level

27%

Kaluga scores more

27%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff