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Kaluga vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
7/24/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Arena Annenki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kaluga42%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.46
Dinamo Bryansk
1.24

Kaluga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kaluga
2.14
Dinamo Bryansk
1.53

allows per match

Kaluga
0.95
Dinamo Bryansk
0.77

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
68%
Kaluga or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
58%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
77%
Kaluga 2+ goals
43%
Kaluga 3+ goals
18%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
57%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 2.14 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.53 + Kaluga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaluga scores more
42%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
32%

Kaluga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kaluga 0–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Kaluga and Dinamo Bryansk drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Annenki in Kaluga.