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Dinamo Bryansk vs Kaluga — Cup 2019

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
9/13/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk20%
×Draw22%
Kaluga58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.01
Kaluga
1.88

Kaluga creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.86
Kaluga
1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
2.43
Kaluga
1.17

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
42%
Dinamo Bryansk or Kaluga
78%
Draw or Kaluga
80%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
7%
Kaluga wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%
Kaluga 1+ goals
85%
Kaluga 2+ goals
56%
Kaluga 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
26%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.86 + Kaluga defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kaluga attack 1.33 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
20%
level
22%
Kaluga scores more
58%

Kaluga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dinamo Bryansk 0–0 Kaluga

Dinamo Bryansk and Kaluga drew 0-0 in Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.