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Kalná nad Hronom vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
9/10/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 6Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom47%
×Draw24%
Fomat Martin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalná nad Hronom
1.65
Fomat Martin
1.25

Kalná nad Hronom creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.64
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom
1.21
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw
71%
Kalná nad Hronom or Fomat Martin
76%
Draw or Fomat Martin
53%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
24%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
81%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
49%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
23%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
71%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
36%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
62%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more
47%
level
24%
Fomat Martin scores more
29%

Kalná nad Hronom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Fomat Martin

Kalná nad Hronom and Fomat Martin drew 1-1 in 3. liga - West on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.