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Fomat Martin vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
CANC
13:30
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
4/8/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 21Štadión FK Slovan Žabokreky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fomat Martin48%
×Draw24%
Kalná nad Hronom28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
1.69
Kalná nad Hronom
1.23

Fomat Martin creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
1.76
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.36
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
72%
Fomat Martin or Kalná nad Hronom
76%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
52%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
26%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
82%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
50%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
24%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
71%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
35%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
63%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 1.76 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Fomat Martin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
48%
level
24%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
28%

Fomat Martin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fomat Martin face Kalná nad Hronom (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Fomat Martin hosting Kalná nad Hronom. Match starts April 8, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fomat Martin host Kalná nad Hronom at Štadión FK Slovan Žabokreky.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.