Kalná nad Hronom 2–1 Častkovce: Result & Stats

Kalná nad Hronom

FT

2 – 1

Častkovce

10/9/2021

3. liga - West · West - 10Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kalná nad Hronom46%

×Draw24%

Častkovce30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalná nad HronomExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.27

Kalná nad Hronom

1.65

Častkovce

1.27

Kalná nad Hronom creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 85 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

1.21

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Kalná nad Hronom

1.64

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Kalná nad Hronom

1.21

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalná nad Hronom ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kalná nad Hronom or draw

70%

Kalná nad Hronom or Častkovce

76%

Draw or Častkovce

54%

Winning margin

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+

24%

Častkovce wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals

81%

Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals

49%

Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals

23%

Častkovce 1+ goals

72%

Častkovce 2+ goals

36%

Častkovce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)

61%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalná nad Hronom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.64 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kalná nad Hronom scores more

46%

level

24%

Častkovce scores more

30%

Kalná nad Hronom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kalná nad Hronom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Častkovce

Kalná nad Hronom beat Častkovce 2-1 in 3. liga - West on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión KFC Kalná nad Hronom in Kalná nad Hronom.

Kalná nad Hronom vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kalná nad Hronom vs Častkovce