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Častkovce vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
5/14/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 27Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Častkovce49%
×Draw24%
Kalná nad Hronom27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
1.73
Kalná nad Hronom
1.24

Častkovce creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
73%
Častkovce or Kalná nad Hronom
76%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
51%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
26%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
82%
Častkovce 2+ goals
52%
Častkovce 3+ goals
25%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
71%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
35%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
64%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Častkovce scores more
49%
level
24%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
27%

Častkovce at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Častkovce vs Kalná nad Hronom

Častkovce beat Kalná nad Hronom 3-2 in 3. liga - West on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.