Kalmar FF 1–2 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mjallby AIF

P. Diouf 90+7'

V. Gustafson 68'

J. Bergström 21'

10/20/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 27Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Kalmar FF30%

×Draw27%

Mjallby AIF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.40

Kalmar FF

1.11

Mjallby AIF

1.40

Mjallby AIF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

0.82

creates per match

1.43

1.36

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Kalmar FF

0.82

Mjallby AIF

1.43

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.36

Mjallby AIF

1.41

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Kalmar FF-0.12scores less

Mjallby AIF+0.49scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

56%

Kalmar FF or Mjallby AIF

73%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

70%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

12%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

67%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

30%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

10%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

75%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

41%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

41%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 10 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.82 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mjallby AIF attack 1.43 + Kalmar FF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

30%

level

27%

Mjallby AIF scores more

44%

Mjallby AIF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Sjöstedt

Kalmar FF · D

7.7

Match Events

21'

J. Bergström↳ N. Persson

38'

Herman Johansson

46'

M. Moro← S. Nwankwo

55'

Otto Rosengren

56'

H. Rashidi← H. Johansson

62'

F. Sachpekidis← S. Skrabb

62'

Romário← N. Shamoun

68'

V. Gustafson↳ O. Rosengren

69'

A. Lindahl← J. Karlsson

76'

D. Löfquist← J. Bergström

81'

Davíð Kristján Ólafsson

82'

P. Diouf← S. Nanasi

82'

I. Bjerkebo← D. Ólafsson

90+7'

P. Diouf↳ L. Sætra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarMjallby

Overview

72%Possession28%

11Total Shots10

4Corners3

7Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

798Total Passes311

717Accurate Passes247

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1