Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
Preview
17:00
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
7/20/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 13
43%
Malmo FF
model favours
30%26%43%

67% of Malmo FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kalmar FF30%
×Draw26%
Malmo FF43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.14
Malmo FF
1.42

Malmo FF creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
1.00
Malmo FF
1.41

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.42
Malmo FF
1.27

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
57%
Kalmar FF or Malmo FF
74%
Draw or Malmo FF
70%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
12%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
68%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
32%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
11%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
76%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
41%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
41%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.00 + Malmo FF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Malmo FF attack 1.41 + Kalmar FF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
30%
level
26%
Malmo FF scores more
43%

Malmo FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 31% of Kalmar FF’s matches
  • Style contrast — Kalmar FF play Defensively solid, Malmo FF Possession-dominant
  • 37% of Kalmar FF’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 27% of Malmo FF’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Malmo FF fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 1.9 expected)
  • 21% of Kalmar FF’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kalmar FF
Defensively solid
Malmo FF
Possession-dominant
49%Possession61%
85%Pass accuracy86%
11.8Shots17.9
1.19xGBiggest gap1.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kalmar FFMalmo FF

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FF
LWWWL
FF
WWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kalmar FF host Malmo FF

July 20, 2026: Kalmar FF take on Malmo FF in Allsvenskan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.