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Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra — Svenska Cupen 2019

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
3/1/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Gasten konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kalmar FF72%
×Draw16%
Jonkopings Sodra12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
2.59
Jonkopings Sodra
0.94

Kalmar FF creates 176% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
2.31
Jonkopings Sodra
0.88

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.00
Jonkopings Sodra
2.88

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
88%
Kalmar FF or Jonkopings Sodra
84%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
28%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
51%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
92%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
73%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
47%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
61%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
24%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
86%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.31 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.59

Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.88 + Kalmar FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
72%
level
16%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
12%

Kalmar FF at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Kalmar FF 5–0 Jonkopings Sodra

Kalmar FF beat Jonkopings Sodra 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Gasten konstgräs in Kalmar.