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Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
12/9/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Relegation RoundStadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra30%
×Draw26%
Kalmar FF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.13
Kalmar FF
1.42

Kalmar FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 115 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
0.67
Kalmar FF
1.17

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.67
Kalmar FF
1.59

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
56%
Jonkopings Sodra or Kalmar FF
74%
Draw or Kalmar FF
70%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
12%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
68%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
31%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
11%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
76%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
41%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
41%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.67 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kalmar FF attack 1.17 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
30%
level
26%
Kalmar FF scores more
44%

Kalmar FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-1 in Allsvenskan on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.