Kalmar FF 2–2 IK brage: Result & Stats | Superettan

Kalmar FF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

IK brage

7/20/2025

Superettan · Round 15Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF53%

×Draw24%

IK brage23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchIK brage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Kalmar FF

1.75

IK brage

1.08

Kalmar FF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

2.07

creates per match

1.30

0.87

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Kalmar FF

2.07

IK brage

1.30

allows per match

Kalmar FF

0.87

IK brage

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

IK brage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

77%

Kalmar FF or IK brage

76%

Draw or IK brage

47%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

29%

IK brage wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

83%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

52%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

25%

IK brage 1+ goals

66%

IK brage 2+ goals

29%

IK brage 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

69%

IK brage (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.07 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

IK brage attack 1.30 + Kalmar FF defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

53%

level

24%

IK brage scores more

23%

Kalmar FF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff