IK brage 1–3 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats | Superettan

IK brage

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kalmar FF

10/4/2025

Superettan · Round 26Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK brage29%

×Draw27%

Kalmar FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.37

IK brage

1.07

Kalmar FF

1.37

Kalmar FF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

1.61

creates per match

1.40

1.34

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

IK brage

1.61

Kalmar FF

1.40

allows per match

IK brage

1.34

Kalmar FF

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

56%

IK brage or Kalmar FF

73%

Draw or Kalmar FF

71%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

11%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

66%

IK brage 2+ goals

29%

IK brage 3+ goals

9%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

75%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

40%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

40%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 127 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.61 + Kalmar FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kalmar FF attack 1.40 + IK brage defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IK brage scores more

29%

level

27%

Kalmar FF scores more

44%

Kalmar FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff