Kalmar FF 1–1 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IFK Goteborg

C. Rosenqvist 29'

T. Heintz 45'

4/23/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 4Guldfageln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kalmar FF34%

×Draw28%

IFK Goteborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.24

Kalmar FF

1.15

IFK Goteborg

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

0.69

creates per match

1.20

1.28

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kalmar FF

0.69

IFK Goteborg

1.20

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.28

IFK Goteborg

1.61

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.31scores more

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

62%

Kalmar FF or IFK Goteborg

72%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

66%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

14%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

68%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

32%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

11%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

71%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

35%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

47%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.28 · 6 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.61 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.69 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.15

IFK Goteborg attack 1.20 + Kalmar FF defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

34%

level

28%

IFK Goteborg scores more

38%

IFK Goteborg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

C. Sagoe Jr

Kalmar FF · F

7.7

Match Events

7'

Saidou Alioum Moubarak

29'

C. Rosenqvist↳ R. Jansson

30'

Filip Ottosson

45'

T. Heintz↳ A. Bergmark-Wiberg

46'

S. Clemmensen← S. Alioum

57'

M. Hallberg← V. Tyren

57'

A. Olusanya← M. Soderback

62'

T. Coimbra← M. Fenger

81'

B. Brantlind← A. Bergmark-Wiberg

88'

Emeka Nnamani← N. Chourak

88'

I. Jagne← T. Heintz

89'

August Erlingmark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarIFK

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots16

8Corners5

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots16

7On Target5

1Off Target5

3Blocked6

2Inside Box14

9Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

394Total Passes508

303Accurate Passes417

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides5