Kalmar FF 0–1 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Goteborg

A. Muçolli 46'

4/14/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 3Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kalmar FF32%

×Draw27%

IFK Goteborg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.30

Kalmar FF

1.11

IFK Goteborg

1.30

IFK Goteborg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

0.67

creates per match

1.23

1.37

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kalmar FF

0.67

IFK Goteborg

1.23

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.37

IFK Goteborg

1.56

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.19scores more

IFK Goteborg-0.04on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

59%

Kalmar FF or IFK Goteborg

73%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

68%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

13%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

67%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

30%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

10%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

73%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

37%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

44%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.67 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.11

IFK Goteborg attack 1.23 + Kalmar FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

32%

level

27%

IFK Goteborg scores more

41%

IFK Goteborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Pyndt

IFK Goteborg · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

Motaraghebjafarpour Arash

46'

A. Muçolli↳ T. Santos

62'

D. Islamović← Romário

62'

R. Jansson← A. Motaraghebjafarpour

69'

A. Carlén← S. Ohlsson

79'

Jonathan Ring

83'

K. Jensen← A. Gersbach

83'

A. Magashy← J. Ring

85'

G. Norlin← A. Trondsen

90+2'

O. Pettersson← A. Muçolli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarIFK

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots26

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.91

2Corners8

20Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots26

1On Target6

4Off Target9

2Blocked11

4Inside Box15

3Outside Box11

Passing

57%Possession43%

550Total Passes411

480Accurate Passes334

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1