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Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
7/20/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 15Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kalmar FF31%
×Draw29%
Djurgardens IF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.02
Djurgardens IF
1.20

Djurgardens IF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
0.55
Djurgardens IF
0.91

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.49
Djurgardens IF
1.48

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.25scores more
Djurgardens IF+0.23scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
60%
Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF
71%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
69%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
12%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
64%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
27%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
8%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
70%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
34%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
44%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.55 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.02

Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 + Kalmar FF defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
31%
level
29%
Djurgardens IF scores more
40%

Djurgardens IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Kalmar FF 2–1 Djurgardens IF

Kalmar FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.