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Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
5/8/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 7Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Djurgardens IF48%
×Draw25%
Kalmar FF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.63
Kalmar FF
1.15

Djurgardens IF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.75
Kalmar FF
1.28

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
1.02
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.25scores less
Kalmar FF-0.08on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
73%
Djurgardens IF or Kalmar FF
75%
Draw or Kalmar FF
52%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
25%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
80%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
48%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
22%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
68%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
32%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
64%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.75 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kalmar FF attack 1.28 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
48%
level
25%
Kalmar FF scores more
27%

Djurgardens IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF

Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.