Kallon Liberia 0–4 BEA Mountain: Result & Stats

Kallon Liberia

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

BEA Mountain

2/29/2024

LFA First Division · Round 19Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kallon Liberia26%

×Draw22%

BEA Mountain52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kallon LiberiaExpected goals in this matchBEA Mountain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.04

Kallon Liberia

1.40

BEA Mountain

2.04

BEA Mountain creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 74 away

1.69

creates per match

1.84

2.23

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Kallon Liberia

1.69

BEA Mountain

1.84

allows per match

Kallon Liberia

2.23

BEA Mountain

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kallon Liberia ↓

BEA Mountain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kallon Liberia or draw

48%

Kallon Liberia or BEA Mountain

78%

Draw or BEA Mountain

74%

Winning margin

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+

11%

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals

75%

Kallon Liberia 2+ goals

41%

Kallon Liberia 3+ goals

17%

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

87%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

60%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)

34%

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kallon Liberia at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kallon Liberia attack 1.69 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kallon Liberia scores more

26%

level

22%

BEA Mountain scores more

52%

BEA Mountain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff