BEA Mountain 2–1 Kallon Liberia: Result & Stats

BEA Mountain

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kallon Liberia

10/22/2023

LFA First Division · Round 8Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BEA Mountain57%

×Draw22%

Kallon Liberia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BEA MountainExpected goals in this matchKallon Liberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.14

BEA Mountain

1.98

Kallon Liberia

1.14

BEA Mountain creates 74% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

1.38

0.89

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

BEA Mountain

1.74

Kallon Liberia

1.38

allows per match

BEA Mountain

0.89

Kallon Liberia

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Kallon Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Kallon Liberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw

78%

BEA Mountain or Kallon Liberia

78%

Draw or Kallon Liberia

43%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

33%

Kallon Liberia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

86%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

59%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

31%

Kallon Liberia 1+ goals

68%

Kallon Liberia 2+ goals

32%

Kallon Liberia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

72%

Kallon Liberia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Kallon Liberia away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Kallon Liberia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kallon Liberia attack 1.38 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BEA Mountain scores more

57%

level

22%

Kallon Liberia scores more

22%

BEA Mountain at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff