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Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
5/10/2026MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 11Hiiu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Kalju Nomme31%
×Draw23%
Flora Tallinn46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalju Nomme
1.41
Flora Tallinn
1.75

Flora Tallinn creates 24% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 133 away

creates per match

Kalju Nomme
1.98
Flora Tallinn
2.39

allows per match

Kalju Nomme
1.11
Flora Tallinn
0.83

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw
54%
Kalju Nomme or Flora Tallinn
77%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
69%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
14%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
76%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
41%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
17%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
83%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
52%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
41%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 129 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.98 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.41

Flora Tallinn attack 2.39 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more
31%
level
23%
Flora Tallinn scores more
46%

Flora Tallinn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: Kalju Nomme 0–1 Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Kalju Nomme 1-0 in Meistriliiga on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Hiiu Stadium in Tallinn.