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Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme — Meistriliiga 2026

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
7/6/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 19A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Flora Tallinn50%
×Draw24%
Kalju Nomme26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora Tallinn
1.76
Kalju Nomme
1.20

Flora Tallinn creates 47% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 132 away

creates per match

Flora Tallinn
2.50
Kalju Nomme
1.68

allows per match

Flora Tallinn
0.72
Kalju Nomme
1.02

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par
Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Kalju Nomme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw
74%
Flora Tallinn or Kalju Nomme
76%
Draw or Kalju Nomme
50%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
28%
Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
83%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
52%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
26%
Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
70%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
34%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
66%
Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.72 · 127 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 2.50 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kalju Nomme attack 1.68 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more
50%
level
24%
Kalju Nomme scores more
26%

Flora Tallinn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: Flora Tallinn 1–0 Kalju Nomme

Flora Tallinn beat Kalju Nomme 1-0 in Meistriliiga on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.