Kalisz 1–1 Hutnik Kraków: Result & Stats

Kalisz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hutnik Kraków

B. Putno 44'

M. Głogowski 39'

10/11/2024

II Liga - East · Round 13Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kalisz33%

×Draw26%

Hutnik Kraków41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaliszExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.37

Kalisz

1.21

Hutnik Kraków

1.37

Hutnik Kraków creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

1.56

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Kalisz

1.00

Hutnik Kraków

1.18

allows per match

Kalisz

1.56

Hutnik Kraków

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw

59%

Kalisz or Hutnik Kraków

74%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

67%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+

14%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals

70%

Kalisz 2+ goals

34%

Kalisz 3+ goals

12%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

75%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

40%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)

45%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.00 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.18 + Kalisz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kalisz scores more

33%

level

26%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

41%

Hutnik Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

25'

36'

39'

44'

46'

56'

K. Toporkiewicz← W. Maroszek

59'

W. Smolinski

67'

W. Slomka

67'

J. Głaz← K. Koczy

67'

A. Cierpka← M. Andruszko

67'

K. Szablowski← M. Sowiński

77'

J. Glaz

80'

B. Kieliba

80'

M. Szymański← Néstor Gordillo

86'

M. Glogowski

86'

D. Hoyo-Kowalski← Ł. Kędziora

90'

D. Hoyo-Kowalski

Kalisz

Hutnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Woźniak

56'▲K. Toporkiewicz←▼W. Maroszek

67'▲J. Głaz←▼K. Koczy

67'▲A. Cierpka←▼M. Andruszko

80'▲M. Szymański←▼Néstor Gordillo

Kalisz substitutes

ToporkiewiczGłazCierpkaSzymański

Manager: M. Musiał

22'▲Y. Belych←▼D. Rakels

46'▲O. Soprych←▼F. Jania

67'▲K. Szablowski←▼M. Sowiński

86'▲D. Hoyo-Kowalski←▼Ł. Kędziora

Hutnik Kraków substitutes

BelychSoprychSzablowskiHoyo-Kowalski

II Liga - East: Kalisz 1–1 Hutnik Kraków

Kalisz and Hutnik Kraków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 11, 2024.

Goals: M. Głogowski (39'), B. Putno (44').

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.

Kalisz vs Hutnik Kraków — II Liga - East 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Kalisz 1–1 Hutnik Kraków