Hutnik Kraków vs Kalisz — II Liga - East 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Hutnik Kraków46%
Kalisz28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hutnik Kraków creates 36% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hutnik Kraków ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches
Kalisz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hutnik Kraków attack 1.31 + Kalisz defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46
Kalisz attack 1.10 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Hutnik Kraków at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Unia Skierniewice
Warta Poznań
Olimpia Grudziądz
Podbeskidzie
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Podhale Nowy Targ
Śląsk Wrocław II
Chojniczanka ChojniceHutnik Kraków
Resovia Rzeszów
Świt Skolwin
Stal Stalowa Wola
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Sokół KleczewKalisz
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ŁKS Łódź II
Jastrzębie
Górnik Polkowice
KSZO 1929
Łomża
LuzinoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hutnik Kraków host Kalisz on Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 12:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Hutnik Kraków vs Kalisz
Hutnik Kraków beat Kalisz 4-0 in II Liga - East on February 28, 2026.
Goals: O. Zawada (15'), K. Prusinski (38'), D. Hoyo-Kowalski (64'), A. Basse (73').
The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy.