Kaliakra 1923 0–2 Hitrino: Result & Stats

Kaliakra 1923

FT

0 – 2

Hitrino

3/9/2019

Third League - Northeast · Round 18Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192350%

×Draw23%

Hitrino26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaliakra 1923Expected goals in this matchHitrino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.22

Kaliakra 1923

1.78

Hitrino

1.22

Kaliakra 1923 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

1.85

creates per match

0.75

1.69

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923

1.85

Hitrino

0.75

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923

1.69

Hitrino

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Hitrino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw

74%

Kaliakra 1923 or Hitrino

77%

Draw or Hitrino

50%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+

28%

Hitrino wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals

83%

Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals

53%

Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals

26%

Hitrino 1+ goals

70%

Hitrino 2+ goals

34%

Hitrino 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)

66%

Hitrino (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more

50%

level

23%

Hitrino scores more

26%

Kaliakra 1923 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff