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Hitrino vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
1 – 0
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
9/22/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 5Stadion Hitrino (Hitrino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hitrino59%
×Draw22%
Kaliakra 192319%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
1.94
Kaliakra 1923
0.99

Hitrino creates 96% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
81%
Hitrino or Kaliakra 1923
78%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
41%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
35%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
86%
Hitrino 2+ goals
58%
Hitrino 3+ goals
30%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
63%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
26%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
76%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hitrino scores more
59%
level
22%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
19%

Hitrino at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Hitrino 1–0 Kaliakra 1923

Hitrino beat Kaliakra 1923 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino (Hitrino).