Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaliakra 1923 vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
CANC
00:00
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
8/24/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192363%
×Draw19%
Botev Novi Pazar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
2.42
Botev Novi Pazar
1.23

Kaliakra 1923 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
82%
Kaliakra 1923 or Botev Novi Pazar
81%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
37%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
41%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
91%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
69%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
43%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
71%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
35%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
78%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.42

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
63%
level
19%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
18%

Kaliakra 1923 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaliakra 1923 vs Botev Novi Pazar — Match Preview

Kaliakra 1923 face Botev Novi Pazar on August 24, 2019 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kaliakra 1923 host Botev Novi Pazar at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.