Botev Novi Pazar 4–2 Kaliakra 1923: Result & Stats

Botev Novi Pazar

FT

4 – 2

Kaliakra 1923

12/9/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 15Stadion Botev (Novi pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar45%

×Draw26%

Kaliakra 192330%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchKaliakra 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Botev Novi Pazar

1.50

Kaliakra 1923

1.17

Botev Novi Pazar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 12 away

1.07

creates per match

0.67

1.67

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.07

Kaliakra 1923

0.67

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.67

Kaliakra 1923

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw

70%

Botev Novi Pazar or Kaliakra 1923

74%

Draw or Kaliakra 1923

55%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+

22%

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals

78%

Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals

44%

Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals

19%

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals

69%

Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals

33%

Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

60%

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more

45%

level

26%

Kaliakra 1923 scores more

30%

Botev Novi Pazar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff