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Kalamunda City vs Joondalup City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
FT
0 – 2
Joondalup City
Joondalup City
4/26/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 5Sutherlands Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City24%
×Draw22%
Joondalup City54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalamunda City
1.21
Joondalup City
1.94

Joondalup City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kalamunda City
1.27
Joondalup City
1.80

allows per match

Kalamunda City
2.09
Joondalup City
1.15

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par
Joondalup City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

Joondalup City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw
46%
Kalamunda City or Joondalup City
78%
Draw or Joondalup City
76%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+
9%
Joondalup City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals
70%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
34%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
12%
Joondalup City 1+ goals
86%
Joondalup City 2+ goals
58%
Joondalup City 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
30%
Joondalup City (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Joondalup City away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + Joondalup City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Joondalup City attack 1.80 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kalamunda City scores more
24%
level
22%
Joondalup City scores more
54%

Joondalup City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Joondalup City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalamunda City vs Joondalup City

Joondalup City beat Kalamunda City 2-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sutherlands Park in Perth.