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Joondalup City vs Kalamunda City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Joondalup City
Joondalup City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
7/5/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 15Iluka Sports Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Joondalup City49%
×Draw25%
Kalamunda City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joondalup City
1.56
Kalamunda City
1.07

Joondalup City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Joondalup City
1.94
Kalamunda City
0.82

allows per match

Joondalup City
1.33
Kalamunda City
1.18

finishing

Joondalup City+0.00on par
Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joondalup City ↓

Kalamunda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Joondalup City or draw
74%
Joondalup City or Kalamunda City
75%
Draw or Kalamunda City
51%

Winning margin

Joondalup City wins by 2+
25%
Kalamunda City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Joondalup City 1+ goals
79%
Joondalup City 2+ goals
46%
Joondalup City 3+ goals
21%
Kalamunda City 1+ goals
66%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
29%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Joondalup City (draw refunded)
65%
Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joondalup City at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joondalup City attack 1.94 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Joondalup City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Joondalup City scores more
49%
level
25%
Kalamunda City scores more
26%

Joondalup City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Joondalup City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Joondalup City 1–1 Kalamunda City

Joondalup City and Kalamunda City drew 1-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Iluka Sports Complex A in Iluka.