Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalamunda City vs Curtin University — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Curtin University
Curtin University
6/21/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 13Sutherlands Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City30%
×Draw25%
Curtin University45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalamunda City
1.19
Curtin University
1.52

Curtin University creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kalamunda City
1.27
Curtin University
0.95

allows per match

Kalamunda City
2.09
Curtin University
1.11

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par
Curtin University+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

Curtin University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw
55%
Kalamunda City or Curtin University
75%
Draw or Curtin University
70%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+
12%
Curtin University wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals
70%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
33%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
12%
Curtin University 1+ goals
78%
Curtin University 2+ goals
45%
Curtin University 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
40%
Curtin University (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Curtin University away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + Curtin University defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Curtin University attack 0.95 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kalamunda City scores more
30%
level
25%
Curtin University scores more
45%

Curtin University at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Curtin University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalamunda City vs Curtin University

Curtin University beat Kalamunda City 1-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sutherlands Park in Perth.