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Curtin University vs Kalamunda City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Curtin University
Curtin University
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
3/21/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 1Edinburgh Oval A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Curtin University26%
×Draw23%
Kalamunda City50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curtin University
1.22
Kalamunda City
1.78

Kalamunda City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Curtin University
1.26
Kalamunda City
0.82

allows per match

Curtin University
2.74
Kalamunda City
1.18

finishing

Curtin University+0.00on par
Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curtin University ↓

Kalamunda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Curtin University or draw
50%
Curtin University or Kalamunda City
77%
Draw or Kalamunda City
74%

Winning margin

Curtin University wins by 2+
11%
Kalamunda City wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Curtin University 1+ goals
70%
Curtin University 2+ goals
34%
Curtin University 3+ goals
12%
Kalamunda City 1+ goals
83%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
53%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Curtin University (draw refunded)
34%
Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curtin University at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curtin University attack 1.26 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Curtin University defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Curtin University scores more
26%
level
23%
Kalamunda City scores more
50%

Kalamunda City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kalamunda City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Curtin University 0–1 Kalamunda City

Kalamunda City beat Curtin University 1-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Edinburgh Oval A in Bentley.