Kalamazoo FC 3–1 Ann Arbor: Result & Stats

Kalamazoo FC

FT

3 – 1

Ann Arbor

6/10/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 8Mayor's Riverfront Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kalamazoo FC43%

×Draw24%

Ann Arbor33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalamazoo FCExpected goals in this matchAnn Arbor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.44

Kalamazoo FC

1.66

Ann Arbor

1.44

Kalamazoo FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.56

creates per match

1.56

1.31

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Kalamazoo FC

1.56

Ann Arbor

1.56

allows per match

Kalamazoo FC

1.31

Ann Arbor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalamazoo FC+0.00on par

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamazoo FC ↓

Ann Arbor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kalamazoo FC or draw

67%

Kalamazoo FC or Ann Arbor

76%

Draw or Ann Arbor

57%

Winning margin

Kalamazoo FC wins by 2+

22%

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kalamazoo FC 1+ goals

81%

Kalamazoo FC 2+ goals

49%

Kalamazoo FC 3+ goals

23%

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

76%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

42%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kalamazoo FC (draw refunded)

56%

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamazoo FC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamazoo FC attack 1.56 + Ann Arbor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ann Arbor attack 1.56 + Kalamazoo FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kalamazoo FC scores more

43%

level

24%

Ann Arbor scores more

33%

Kalamazoo FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalamazoo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff